Trump Gunakan Logika “Untung-Rugi” Pebisnis dalam Krisis Iran, Bukan Diplomasi Konvensional

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JAKARTA – Analis Hubungan Internasional senior, Pitan Daslani, menilai bahwa eskalasi ketegangan antara Amerika Serikat dan Iran saat ini tidak bisa dibaca dengan kacamata diplomasi tradisional. Menurutnya, kebijakan luar negeri Washington di bawah Presiden Donald Trump murni digerakkan oleh naluri seorang pebisnis yang melihat konflik sebagai instrumen negosiasi dan komoditas politik.

Dalam keterangannya baru-baru ini, Pitan menekankan bahwa publik tidak perlu terkejut dengan retorika Trump yang sering kali membingungkan atau kontradiktif.

Perang sebagai instrumen tawar-menawar “Trump itu bukan diplomat, dia adalah pebisnis. Bagi seorang pebisnis, tidak ada kawan atau lawan abadi, yang ada hanyalah kesepakatan yang menguntungkan,” ujar Pitan. Ia menjelaskan bahwa ancaman militer dan sanksi ekonomi yang dijatuhkan ke Tehran bukanlah tujuan akhir, melainkan upaya untuk menciptakan daya tawar (leverage) demi mendapatkan “kesepakatan yang lebih baik” sesuai standar Trump.

Kalkulasi biaya dan elektabilitas Pitan menyoroti bahwa strategi “capek sendiri” Trump akan sangat bergantung pada kalkulasi biaya. Memasuki pertengahan tahun 2026, Trump menghadapi tekanan domestik menjelang Pemilu Sela (Midterm Election).

  • Harga Energi: Pitan mencatat bahwa lonjakan harga BBM global akibat gangguan di Selat Hormuz mulai membebani pemilih di AS.
  • Logika Transaksional: Jika biaya perang—baik secara finansial maupun politik—sudah melampaui keuntungan citra yang didapat, Trump diprediksi akan menarik diri atau mencari jalan keluar cepat.
  • Keamanan sebagai Komoditas: Trump memandang kehadiran militer AS di kawasan Teluk sebagai “jasa pengamanan” yang harus dibayar mahal oleh sekutu-sekutunya, sebuah pendekatan yang sangat transaksional.

Prediksi Akhir Konflik Menurut analisis Pitan, perang ini tidak akan berakhir melalui rekonsiliasi ideologis atau perdamaian formal yang mendalam. Sebaliknya, konflik akan mereda ketika Trump merasa target ekonominya tercapai atau ketika ia sudah “capek” karena tekanan domestik Amerika mulai mengancam peluang politiknya.

“Dia akan berhenti ketika kalkulator di mejanya menunjukkan angka merah. Di titik itulah, retorika perang akan berubah menjadi ajakan berjabat tangan di meja perundingan,” tutup Pitan.

Krisis ini menjadi ujian bagi ketahanan global, di mana stabilitas energi dunia kini sangat bergantung pada sejauh mana seorang pemimpin pebisnis di Gedung Putih merasa taruhannya masih membuahkan profit politik.

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