Israel Mungkin Menang Pertempuran, Tapi Iran Sedang Memenangkan Peperangan

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JAKARTA – Pakar geopolitik dari Indo-Pacific Strategic Intelligence (IPSI), Aisha Rasyidila Kusumasomantri, memberikan otopsi tajam terkait konflik Timur Tengah saat ini. Ia menekankan perbedaan mendasar antara “memenangkan pertempuran” (winning the battle) dan “memenangkan peperangan” (winning the war) dalam konteks konfrontasi AS-Israel melawan poros Iran.

Dalam penjelasannya saat tampil podcast  di kanal YouTube Abraham Samad SPEAK UP, Aisha menyebut bahwa secara taktis militer, Israel memang seringkali unggul dalam pertempuran darat maupun udara. Namun, secara strategis, posisi mereka justru semakin terdesak dalam gambaran perang yang lebih besar.

Perbedaan Taktis vs Strategis

Aisha menjelaskan bahwa kemenangan dalam pertempuran seringkali hanya bersifat teknis dan sesaat, sementara kemenangan perang berkaitan dengan pencapaian tujuan politik jangka panjang.

  • Menang Pertempuran: “Israel mampu melumpuhkan target-target spesifik, menghancurkan bunker, atau membunuh tokoh kunci lawan. Ini adalah kemenangan taktis di lapangan,” ujar Aisha.
  • Menang Peperangan: “Iran dan sekutunya (Houthi, Hezbollah, milisi Irak) bermain di level strategi. Mereka tidak mencari kemenangan dalam adu tembak langsung, melainkan kemenangan melalui keletihan lawan (war of attrition), isolasi ekonomi Israel, dan pengurasan logistik Amerika Serikat.”

Jebakan “War of Attrition”

Menurut Aisha, strategi Iran yang mengepung dari tiga front—utara, selatan, dan internal—telah memaksa Israel berada dalam kondisi siaga permanen yang menghancurkan ekonomi domestik mereka.

“Israel mungkin memenangkan pertempuran di Gaza atau Lebanon Selatan, tapi mereka sedang kalah dalam peperangan karena gagal mencapai stabilitas keamanan. Sebaliknya, Iran sukses membuat biaya hidup dan biaya perang di Israel melonjak hingga pada titik yang tidak berkelanjutan,” tambahnya.

Kekalahan Moral dan Diplomasi Amerika

Aisha juga menyoroti peran Amerika Serikat yang terjebak dalam dilema ini. Dengan terus memasok senjata untuk pertempuran-pertempuran kecil Israel, AS justru kehilangan pengaruh diplomasinya di tingkat global dan mengalami defisit kepercayaan di kawasan Indo-Pasifik dan Timur Tengah sendiri.

“Ketika sebuah negara memenangkan semua pertempuran tetapi tetap kehilangan pengaruh politik dan keamanan jangka panjangnya, itulah definisi nyata dari kalah perang,” tegas Aisha.

Pernyataan ini menjadi peringatan bagi para pengambil kebijakan bahwa keunggulan teknologi militer (seperti pesawat tempur canggih) tidak akan berarti jika lawan menggunakan strategi asimetris yang menyerang titik lemah ekonomi dan psikologi negara.

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