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Selamat Rabu pagi, Bapak Presiden. Sejak Jumat lalu, ini surat saya yang keenam. Saya akan terus menulis, menyampaikan masukan apa adanya. Semoga suatu hari Bapak sempat membacanya.
Mungkinkah Prabowo tumbang, lalu Gibran menjadi Presiden? Bapak Presiden, itulah percakapan warung kopi belakangan ini. Gosip dan gibah politik berseliweran: dolar terus naik, krisis ekonomi membayang, dugaan korupsi Febrie, korupsi makan bergizi, isu pembangkangan Kapolri, hingga kasak-kusuk skandal pribadi di sekitar Istana. Pertanyaannya satu: sampai kapan Prabowo bisa bertahan?
Koalisi yang tenang bukan berarti semua senang. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita dan Alastair Smith dalam The Dictator’s Handbook mengingatkan: kekuasaan bertahan selama koalisi penopangnya tetap setia. Di ruang sunyi, kemungkinan pergantian kepemimpinan terus dibicarakan diam-diam. Jika situasi lepas kendali, partai koalisi akan berlompatan menyelamatkan diri sendiri.
Dalam politik, Bapak Presiden, londo ireng bukan LSM, pengamat, atau media yang berisik mengkritik. Mereka justru bisa orang dekat, para pembisik yang menyuapkan racun pujian sampai Bapak mabuk kekuasaan dan lupa daratan. Ujungnya, mereka menjadi Brutus yang menikam dari belakang. Pengkhianat bukan lawan yang terang menyerang, melainkan kawan di garis belakang yang pandai menikam dalam diam.
Secara politik-matematik, posisi Bapak sangat kuat. Konstitusi mengatur pemakzulan bermula di DPR, diperiksa Mahkamah Konstitusi, lalu diputus MPR. Koalisi pemerintah mendominasi DPR; oposisi sejati nyaris tak ada. Karena itu, setiap upaya pemakzulan hampir pasti berhenti sebelum dimulai.
Bukan hanya parlemen, kontrol di luar parlemen pun nyaris lumpuh. Steven Levitsky dan Daniel Ziblatt dalam How Democracies Die mengingatkan: demokrasi melemah ketika pagar pengaman institusional runtuh. Di Indonesia, daya gigit masyarakat sipil terus dilemahkan. Pengamat dan ahli survei direkrut menjadi staf istana dan komisaris perusahaan negara. Media cetak dan televisi ditundukkan lewat akuisisi saham serta pergantian pemimpin redaksi. Teriakan Garang pemimpin buruh diredam dengan kursi menteri. Ormas agama dilumpuhkan dengan konsesi tambang batubara.
Mahasiswa terus dibujuk-rayu. Siapapun yang tetap kritis, dicoba dibeli dengan emas berkilo-kilogram atau dolar berkoper-koper dari brankas rumah sang koruptor; atau dibungkam lewat kriminalisasi, atau dihabisi lewat air keras yang membuta mata dan racun arsenik yang merenggut nyawa.
Secara teori, hampir tak tersisa ruang perlawanan yang mampu menumbangkan presiden.
Tetapi hati-hati, Bapak Presiden. Air tenang bukan berarti tidak menghanyutkan. Arus deras yang lama dibendung dapat ambrol menjadi bencana banjir bandang, ketika momentum gempa datang, meski guncangannya hanya beberapa detik saja.
Dalam surat “Tiga Sebab Jatuhnya Rezim“, saya telah mengingatkan: pemerintahan bisa tumbang karena krisis ekonomi, skandal publik, dan skandal pribadi. Ketiganya kini mengendap-endap, menunggu pemicu diledakkan.
Artinya, jalurnya memang bukan melalui proses konstitusional di parlemen Senayan, melainkan melalui teriakan massa di jalanan. Erica Chenoweth dan Maria J. Stephan dalam Why Civil Resistance Works menunjukkan bahwa perlawanan sipil yang luas, disiplin, dan tanpa kekerasan dapat memutus sumber-sumber penopang kekuasaan, bahkan menggoyahkan loyalitas elite dan aparat. Sejarah berkali-kali mencatat: kekuasaan menghilang bukan karena lemah secara politik dan militer, melainkan justru ketika terlalu kuat, terlalu percaya diri, dan tidak siap saat rakyat menentukan arah sejarah bangsanya sendiri. Ingat, rakyat yang bersatu dalam perlawanan, tak bisa dikalahkan.
Bapak Presiden, satu-satunya kegalauan di level gerakan perlawanan saat ini adalah: kalau Prabowo turun tumbang, maka Gibran yang akan menjadi pemenang dan naik menjadi presiden. Itu aturan normal konstitusinya.
Saya tidak rela, Indonesia dipimpin oleh sosok yang tidak layak, tidak kompeten, dan tidak sedikitpun punya wibawa memimpin bangsa sebesar Indonesia. Saya yakin saya tidak sendirian. Inilah salah satu dosa terbesar Presiden Jokowi dan semua elit politik kita. Demi strategi menang, membiarkan sosok muda minim pengalaman, tanpa cukup pengetahuan, menduduki jabatan terhormat sepenting Wakil Presiden Republik Indonesia.
Nasi telah menjadi bubur. Sejarah hitam sudah tercatat: Gibran Rakabuming Raka adalah Wakil Presiden. Namun, kesalahan sejarah tidak boleh terus dipelihara. Jika krisis tak terkendali dan rezim berganti, Gibran pun harus berhenti.
Jika jabatan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden kosong, UUD 1945 mengatur Menteri Luar Negeri, Menteri Dalam Negeri, dan Menteri Pertahanan bersama-sama menjalankan tugas kepresidenan. Selanjutnya, MPR memilih pasangan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden dari dua pasangan yang diusulkan partai atau gabungan partai peraih suara terbanyak pertama dan kedua pada Pilpres sebelumnya, dalam hal ini koalisi Prabowo-Gibran dan Anies-Muhaimin.
Itulah jalur konstitusional. Jalur lain adalah ekstra-konstitusional. Tentu berada di luar aturan tertulis. Bisa saja ada kesepakatan untuk negara sementara dipimpin oleh tokoh-tokoh bangsa yang bertugas menyiapkan percepatan pemilihan presiden, dalam enam bulan. Jalur non-konstitusional ini hanya akan menjadi sah, kalau didukung semua elemen bangsa dan kekuatan militer sebagai penjaga daulat negara.
Bapak Presiden, saya tidak sedang berandai-andai, apalagi mendorong bangsa ke jurang krisis multidimensi. Namun, pemimpin wajib mengantisipasi setiap kemungkinan, terutama ketika krisis dapat menyasar kursi kepresidenannya sendiri.
Saya tulus berdoa agar Bapak dan Indonesia diselamatkan dari krisis kebangsaan. Kita semua mencintai Indonesia; tidak ingin negeri ini bubar karena salah urus dan buruk tata kelola.
Yang lebih tak terbayangkan, dan semestinya tak pernah terjadi: jika Prabowo tumbang, Indonesia dipimpin Presiden Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Dalam pandangan saya, itu bukan sekadar salah arah. Itu petaka!
Sampai jumpa dalam surat saya berikutnya.
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