Eskalasi Konflik Memuncak: Kegagalan Komitmen Diplomasi AS Dorong Perang Long-Term di Teluk
JAKARTA — Kegagalan berulang Amerika Serikat (AS) dalam menjaga komitmen diplomasi (Memorandum of Understanding/MOU) dan konsistensi perundingan dinilai menjadi pemicu utama meletusnya eskalasi konflik terbuka dengan Iran. Konflik ini diperkirakan tidak akan selesai dalam waktu singkat, melainkan berpotensi menjadi perang panjang hingga hegemoni militer AS di kawasan Teluk terbukti runtuh.
Hal tersebut ditegaskan oleh akademisi dan pakar filsafat Islam UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, Prof. Dr. Khalid Al-Walid, dalam wawancara di program podcast bersama mantan Ketua KPK Abraham Samad yang disiarkan pada kanal YouTube Abraham Samad SPEAK UP.
1. Kebangkrutan Kepercayaan Diplomatik
Menurut Prof. Khalid Al-Walid, kelemahan mendasar dalam dinamika hubungan Washington-Teheran adalah ketidakmampuan pemerintah AS di bawah kepemimpinan Donald Trump untuk memegang janji diplomasi.
“Pertama, kapan sih Trump tidak pernah ingkar janji? Dalam MOU dia batalkan, masih dalam proses MOU dia bunuh pimpinan tertinggi Iran, terakhir MOU dia serang lagi. Ini menunjukkan bahwa memang MOU tidak akan pernah bisa dipercayai. Artinya, perang ini harus berlangsung sampai pada satu titik memang terbukti bahwa Iran tidak bisa terkalahkan.” ujar Prof. Dr. Khalid Al-Walid
Prof. Khalid menegaskan bahwa karakteristik imperialis AS yang menuntut penundukan total berbenturan keras dengan ideologi pertahanan Iran yang menolak didikte oleh kekuatan luar mana pun.
2. Lumpuhnya Instalasi Militer AS dan Dominasi Selat Hormuz
Di tengah kegagalan jalur meja perundingan, Iran membalas dengan gempuran militer asimetris yang melumpuhkan sebagian besar infrastruktur pertahanan lawan di kawasan Teluk.
- Kelumpuhan Radar Pangkalan: Serangan presisi Iran di pangkalan AS di Kuwait, Bahrain, Yordania, dan Arab Saudi menghancurkan pusat radar pandu, memaksa jet tempur AS beroperasi tanpa panduan navigasi darat yang optimal.
- Penguasaan Jalur Logistik Vital: Iran hingga kini mempertahankan kontrol penuh atas Selat Hormuz. Rencana implisit AS untuk melakukan invasi darat ke Pulau Kharg (pusat migas strategis Iran) diprediksi akan menjadi pertaruhan berbiaya sangat tinggi (high-cost gamble) yang rentan digagalkan oleh sistem rudal serta pertahanan udara Iran.
- Dampak Sistemik pada Negara Teluk: Kerusakan fasilitas publik vital—seperti stasiun pengolahan air laut dan pusat data di Kuwait serta Bahrain—memicu kepanikan ekonomi yang memaksa negara-negara Teluk seperti Qatar dan Arab Saudi mendesak Washington agar segera menghentikan konfrontasi militer.
3. Aspek Sosiologis & Ketahanan Mental Bangsa
Sebagai pengamat yang berkesempatan menyaksikan secara langsung prosesi pemakaman Pemimpin Tertinggi Iran Ali Khamenei bersama puluhan juta warga di Teheran, Prof. Khalid menyoroti kesalahan kalkulasi intelijen Barat dalam membaca psikologi masyarakat Iran.
- Kesederhanaan Kepemimpinan: Figur pemimpin di Iran dipandang bukan sekadar penguasa politik, melainkan pengayom bersahaja yang mengorbankan kepentingan pribadi demi rakyat.
- Benteng Kultural dan Ketahanan Moral: Peradaban Persia yang panjang membentuk mentalitas masyarakat yang tidak mudah disogok dan rela berkorban demi kehormatan kebangsaannya.
- Doktrin Syahadah & Intizar: Keyakinan filosofis-religius tentang keberanian melawan kezaliman (Syahadah) dan optimisme pembangunan sains-teknologi dalam penantian kepemimpinan berkeadilan (Intizar) menjadi fondasi mengapa sanksi ekonomi dan gempuran militer AS gagal meruntuhkan stabilitas domestik Iran.
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