Oleh: Sri Radjasa, M.BA (Pemerhati Intelijen)
Membaca geopolitik global tidak bisa hanya dengan mencatat jadwal pertemuan diplomatik di permukaan. Kita harus berani masuk ke wilayah ontologis: Apa hakikat kekuatan yang sedang bergeser? Siapa yang sebenarnya memegang kendali? Tanpa itu, analisis kita hanyalah katalog peristiwa yang membosankan dan gagal menangkap perubahan paradigma.
Dalam perspektif realisme struktural Kenneth Waltz, perilaku negara adalah produk dari konfigurasi kekuatan sistem internasional. Sementara itu, John J. Mearsheimer mengingatkan bahwa negara besar akan menjadi sangat agresif ketika merasa posisinya terancam. Inilah titik buta yang sering diabaikan: Melemahnya ekonomi Amerika Serikat tidak otomatis membuat jalan bagi BRICS menjadi karpet merah. Sejarah membuktikan, saat terdesak, Amerika justru akan memukul balik dengan nasionalisme ekonomi yang brutal.
Proteksionisme Trump dan Ilusi Multilateralisme
Gejala ini nyata di era kedua Donald Trump. Dengan doktrin America First, Trump tidak lagi berminat menjadi “polisi dunia” yang murah hati. Data IMF dan WTO (2024-2026) mengonfirmasi tren ini: Washington semakin proteksionis. Tarif impor dan hambatan non-tarif dihujamkan kepada siapapun yang dianggap mengancam industri domestik mereka, terutama negara-negara yang merapat ke orbit BRICS.
Bagi negara berkembang, ini adalah dilema eksistensial. BRICS memang menawarkan alternatif finansial melalui New Development Bank dan narasi dedolarisasi. Namun, bergabung dengan blok ini berarti masuk ke dalam “radar tembak” rivalitas kekuatan besar. Tanpa otot ekonomi dan militer yang mumpuni, langkah ini adalah perjudian tingkat tinggi.
Dilema Prabowo: Antara BRICS dan Tekanan Washington
Keputusan Presiden Prabowo Subianto membawa Indonesia bergabung dengan BRICS pada awal 2025 adalah langkah berani, namun sarat risiko interpretasi. Dari sudut pandang intelijen strategis, persepsi adalah segalanya. Ketika Trump dilantik kembali pada Januari 2025, ia langsung membidik BRICS sebagai ancaman nyata bagi dolar dan dominasi AS.
Responsnya terasa instan. Kesepakatan perdagangan resiprokal Februari 2026 antara Prabowo dan Trump justru menunjukkan ketimpangan posisi tawar. Indonesia tampak berada dalam posisi defensif, menerima struktur kewajiban yang tidak seimbang demi meredam amarah ekonomi Washington. Inilah harga yang harus dibayar ketika kita keliru membaca kecepatan pergeseran paradigma global: kehilangan ruang manuver.
Diplomasi Simbolik vs Realitas Kekuatan
Ambisi Indonesia untuk menjadi mediator konflik—seperti tawaran mediasi AS-Iran—juga perlu ditinjau ulang secara jujur. Diplomasi bukan sekadar niat baik. Mediasi hanya bekerja jika ada trust dan rekam jejak yang solid. Tanpa prasyarat itu, tawaran kita hanya akan menjadi simbol diplomasi yang hampa di tengah dentuman konflik yang nyata.
Kita perlu belajar dari sejarah. Di masa Sukarno, Indonesia memiliki keberanian geopolitik karena ditopang oleh legitimasi domestik yang kokoh. Ucapan “Go to hell with your aid” bukan sekadar retorika, melainkan cermin dari integrasi kekuatan nasional yang solid.
Kembali ke Khitah “Bebas Aktif”
Prinsip “Bebas Aktif” Mohammad Hatta bukan berarti netralitas yang pasif atau sekadar “ikut sana-sini”. Ia adalah kebebasan untuk bersikap berdasarkan kepentingan nasional yang absolut.
Dalam dunia yang semakin keras, kesalahan membaca arah perubahan geopolitik bukan lagi sekadar perdebatan akademik, melainkan ancaman terhadap kedaulatan ekonomi dan keamanan nasional. Tantangan terbesar Indonesia saat ini bukan memilih blok mana yang harus diikuti, melainkan membangun kemampuan analisis strategis yang tajam sebelum keputusan politik diambil.
Tanpa kemampuan itu, politik luar negeri kita hanya akan menjadi respons reaktif yang melelahkan. Dan dalam rimba geopolitik, harga dari sebuah salah baca biasanya tidak murah.
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