PERANG DARAT LAWAN IRAN, AMERIKA HARUS SIAPKAN 15 RIBU PETI MATI

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WASHINGTON D.C. – Di balik retorika “hajar Iran” yang menggema di Washington, tersimpan ketakutan mendalam di koridor Pentagon. Sebuah bocoran dokumen analisis pertahanan yang diungkap oleh jurnalis senior pemerhati hubungan internasional, Pitan Daslani memetakan konsekuensi mengerikan jika Presiden Donald Trump nekat meluncurkan invasi darat ke Teheran.

Angka yang Melumpuhkan Ekonomi

Dokumen tersebut bukan sekadar prediksi, melainkan  sebuah hasil kajian dan tentu berbasis hitungan dengan data data yang tingkat akurasinya sangat dipercaya. Hasil kajian itu, tidak lagi sekedar pegangan biasa bagi Trump melainkan menjadi peringatan keras bagi stabilitas domestik Amerika. Analisis Pentagon menyebutkan bahwa untuk benar-benar  dapat menjalankan misinya untuk melakukan pergantian rezim (regime change) di Iran, Amerika Serikat harus menyiapkan dana sedikitnya 3 triliun dolar AS. Itupun hanya untuk membiayai keperluan operasi selama 15  bulan perang. Bagaimana kalau tidak berhasil memenangkan peperangan?

“Ini adalah angka yang bisa membangkrutkan Amerika,” ujar Pitan Daslani. Mengingat utang luar negeri AS yang sudah menembus angka kritis, pengeluaran sebesar itu untuk perang selama 18 bulan akan menjadi beban fiskal yang mustahil dipikul tanpa memicu krisis ekonomi global.

15 Ribu Peti Mati: Risiko Perang Darat

Namun, bukan hanya uang yang menjadi taruhan, melainkan nyawa. Dokumen tersebut memperkirakan sedikitnya 15.000 tentara Amerika akan tewas jika perang darat meletus.

Berbeda dengan Irak, Iran memiliki keunggulan medan dan pasukan Garda Revolusi yang memiliki ideologi “siap mati”. Ketidaktahuan akan medan dan teknologi drone murah milik Iran yang mampu melumpuhkan sistem pertahanan mahal AS, menjadikan invasi ini sebagai “jebakan maut” bagi pasukan Paman Sam.

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Dilema Exit Strategy Donald Trump

Presiden Donald Trump kini berada di persimpangan jalan yang sangat sempit. Di satu sisi, ia didesak oleh sekutu regional seperti Arab Saudi (MBS) untuk segera bertindak tegas. Di sisi lain, ia menghadapi realitas militer yang tidak memungkinkan untuk menang dengan cepat.

Pitan Daslani menyoroti upaya diam-diam Gedung Putih dalam mencari “Exit Strategy” atau jalan keluar yang terhormat. Trump mulai melontarkan narasi bahwa “semua target di Iran sudah hancur” sebagai dalih untuk menarik mundur pasukannya tanpa terlihat seperti pecundang di mata internasional.

“Gedung Putih sedang mencari cara untuk tetap terlihat gagah meski sebenarnya mereka sedang menghitung mundur risiko kehancuran,” tambah Pitan. Jika Trump gagal mengeksekusi strategi keluar ini dengan mulus, kredibilitas militer AS di mata sekutu Eropa dan Asia terancam rontok secara permanen.

Konklusi: Maju Kena, Mundur Kena

Situasi ini menempatkan Washington dalam posisi zugzwang. Melanjutkan agresi berarti bunuh diri ekonomi dan politik, namun mundur tanpa syarat berarti mengakui kekalahan di hadapan dinasti baru Khamenei. Bagi Donald Trump, perang melawan Iran bukan lagi soal siapa yang lebih kuat, melainkan siapa yang lebih dulu kehabisan napas dalam perlombaan biaya perang yang tidak masuk akal ini.

sumber disadur dari analisis Pitan Daslani : Pengamat: 15 Ribu Tentara Amerika Bisa T3w4s & 3 Triliun Dollar Habis Untuk Biaya Perang | #SPEAKUP

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