Catat .. Krisis Selalu Bermula Dari Sulitnya Daya Beli Masyarakat

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AKARTA – Para pakar ekonomi dan kebijakan publik mulai menyuarakan alarm waspada terkait pergeseran ancaman krisis di Indonesia. Penurunan daya beli masyarakat yang kian ekstrem kini tidak lagi hanya dilihat sebagai masalah angka statistik, melainkan bom waktu yang berpotensi meledak menjadi krisis sosial-politik yang sistemik.

Ekonom Senior, Yanuar Rizky, seperti dikutip dari kanal YouTube Abraham Samad baru baru ini memperingatkan bahwa stabilitas keamanan nasional sangat bergantung pada kemampuan masyarakat untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dasarnya secara mandiri. Ketika uang tunai di tangan rakyat (M0) mengering, batas antara ketenangan sipil dan gejolak massa menjadi sangat tipis.

“Krisis sosial-politik terjadi saat masyarakat sudah tidak punya uang untuk dibawa pulang ke rumah. Ketika tabungan habis, pinjol sudah tidak bisa menolong, dan lapangan kerja tertutup, rakyat tidak lagi memiliki beban untuk melakukan protes besar-besaran,” ujar Yanuar dalam keterangannya.

Laporan lapangan menunjukkan beberapa indikator yang mengarah pada risiko instabilitas tersebut:

  • Runtuhnya Pertahanan Kelas Menengah: Fenomena “makan tabungan” atau dissaving telah mencapai titik jenuh. Kelas menengah yang selama ini menjadi penyangga ekonomi kini mulai merosot ke kelompok rentan miskin, menciptakan keresahan massal.
  • Sentimen Ketidakadilan Anggaran: Di tengah sulitnya rakyat mendapatkan pangan murah, kebijakan pemerintah yang tetap memaksakan proyek mercusuar dan bagi-bagi proyek politik melalui program seperti Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) memicu persepsi ketimpangan sosial yang tajam.
  • Potensi Perang Kelas: Para analis mencermati adanya risiko gesekan horizontal maupun vertikal. Jika kebutuhan dasar seperti BBM dan pangan melonjak di tengah hilangnya pendapatan, Indonesia berisiko menghadapi skenario krisis serupa dengan yang terjadi di Nepal atau Sri Lanka baru-baru ini.

Yanuar menekankan bahwa Presiden memiliki tantangan kepemimpinan untuk mencegah “balon” keresahan ini pecah. Upaya meredam gejolak hanya dengan bantuan sosial (Bansos) dinilai tidak akan cukup jika fundamental ekonomi, terutama nilai tukar Rupiah yang memukul harga kebutuhan pokok, tidak segera diperbaiki.

“Indonesia berada pada titik temu kepentingan global. Jika kita gagal mengelola daya beli di dalam negeri, kita sangat rentan menjadi instrumen politik pihak asing untuk menggoyang stabilitas kawasan,” tambah Yanuar.

Sejarah mencatat bahwa krisis politik besar di Indonesia selalu didahului oleh keroposnya daya beli rakyat di tingkat akar rumput. Tanpa adanya konsensus nasional untuk mengutamakan “ekonomi perut rakyat” di atas kepentingan proyek elit, ancaman krisis sosial-politik di depan mata bukan lagi sekadar prediksi, melainkan keniscayaan yang tinggal menunggu pemicunya.

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