JAKARTA – Posisi geopolitik Iran pasca-serangan udara Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Israel dinilai justru semakin menguat. Pengamat Timur Tengah, Faisal Assegaf, menyatakan bahwa meskipun pemimpin tertingginya gugur, Iran saat ini berada “di atas angin” dan secara de facto telah memenangkan pertempuran strategis melawan aliansi AS-Israel.
Patahkan Mitos Pertahanan Udara Israel
Dalam analisisnya di kanal YouTube Abraham Samad SPEAK UP, Faisal menyebut kemenangan Iran terlihat dari kemampuannya menembus jantung pertahanan Israel. Meski Israel didukung sistem pertahanan udara canggih, Iran berhasil meluncurkan serangan balasan yang presisi ke wilayah vital.
“Selama ini kita tidak pernah melihat Tel Aviv dibom secara masif, atau Haifa dan Yerusalem Barat dihantam. Sekarang Iran membuktikan bahwa mereka mampu meluluhlantakkan ibu kota lawan dengan rudal balistik hipersonik,” ujar Faisal.
Ia menambahkan, Iran memiliki keunggulan pada teknologi peluru kendali yang sulit dicegat, yang menjadi tandingan efektif bagi jet tempur F-22 Raptor atau F-35 milik AS dan Israel.
Serangan Serentak ke Pangkalan AS
Faisal juga menyoroti keberanian Iran dalam menyerang pangkalan militer AS di berbagai negara Arab secara serentak. Tindakan ini dianggap sebagai pesan kuat bahwa kehadiran militer AS di Timur Tengah tidak lagi menjadi jaminan keamanan bagi negara-negara sekutunya.
“Pangkalan Amerika di Yordania, Irak, Arab Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait, hingga Oman diserang. Ini sejarah baru. Amerika mungkin tidak menyangka pangkalan mereka yang tersebar luas itu bisa menjadi sasaran empuk dalam satu waktu,” jelasnya.
Kondisi ini memaksa AS melakukan evakuasi diplomatik dan personel, yang menurut Faisal, menurunkan wibawa militer AS di mata dunia internasional.
Soliditas Rakyat dan Sistem Presidium
Analisis Faisal juga menyentuh aspek kekuatan internal. Kegagalan intelijen Barat dalam memicu kekacauan sipil (chaos) pasca-gugurnya Ayatullah Ali Khamenei menjadi bukti kuatnya sistem pemerintahan Iran.
- Moral Pejuang: Rakyat Iran justru semakin solid dan memberikan dorongan moral bagi militer untuk melakukan jihad mempertahankan tanah air.
- Sistem Pemerintahan: Transisi kekuasaan ke dewan presidium berjalan mulus tanpa hambatan birokrasi, membuktikan Iran adalah negara yang “mapan secara sistem” dibanding kelompok milisi biasa.
Trump dan Netanyahu Mulai Ragu
Faisal mencatat adanya perubahan narasi dari pihak penyerang. Awalnya, Donald Trump dan Benjamin Netanyahu memprediksi perang hanya akan berlangsung beberapa hari. Namun, kenyataan di lapangan memaksa mereka merevisi prediksi tersebut menjadi lebih dari lima minggu.
“Israel melawan milisi Hamas saja dua tahun tidak selesai, apalagi melawan negara berdaulat dengan anggaran dan sistem militer yang sudah mapan seperti Iran. Inilah mengapa saya katakan Iran sudah menang secara posisi tawar,” pungkas Faisal.
kekuatan militernya bukan kaleng kaleng emang iran
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