JAKARTA – Strategi “Economic Fury” yang dilancarkan Amerika Serikat melalui blokade maritim di perairan Oman kini menjadi panggung adu ketahanan antara Washington dan Teheran. Meski tekanan militer AS kian masif, Iran diprediksi mampu meredam dampak ekonomi tersebut berkat pengalaman panjang menghadapi embargo global.
Pertaruhan Triliunan Rupiah di Selat Hormuz
Dalam analisisnya di kanal YouTube Abraham Samad SPEAK UP, pengamat dari Indo-Pacific Strategic Intelligence (IPSI), Aisha R. Kusumasomantri, membedah dampak sistematis dari blokade yang dilakukan armada tempur AS. Jika AS berhasil menutup total akses kapal-kapal Iran, Teheran berpotensi kehilangan pendapatan hingga 13 miliar USD (sekitar Rp210 triliun) per bulan.
“Jumlah kerugian bulanan ini sebenarnya jauh lebih besar dibandingkan total anggaran militer tahunan Iran yang berkisar di angka 11 hingga 15 miliar USD,” ungkap Aisha. Namun, ia menekankan bahwa angka di atas kertas tidak serta-merta melumpuhkan nyali Teheran.
Doktrin Resiliensi Teheran
Menurut Aisha, kekuatan utama Iran bukan terletak pada kecanggihan armada lautnya untuk melawan kapal induk AS, melainkan pada doktrin resiliensi yang telah dibangun selama 40 tahun. Teheran telah mengantisipasi kondisi ini dengan memperkuat stok pangan, energi, dan sumber daya domestik agar tetap berfungsi dalam kondisi perang jangka panjang.
Strategi ini menempatkan Iran dalam posisi “menunggu”. Mereka sadar bahwa dampak blokade baru akan terasa signifikan dalam kurun waktu 2 hingga 6 bulan. Pertanyaannya kemudian beralih ke sisi Amerika: apakah Washington punya cukup waktu?
AS Terjepit Tekanan Domestik
Aisha menyoroti bahwa Amerika Serikat justru menghadapi tantangan internal yang tak kalah berat. Menjelang pemilu sela (midterm election) pada November mendatang, kenaikan harga minyak, gas, dan logistik akibat ketegangan di Timur Tengah bisa menjadi bumerang bagi pemerintahan Donald Trump.
“AS dikejar waktu. Mereka tidak bisa mempertahankan blokade dalam jangka waktu yang sangat lama jika harga kebutuhan pokok di dalam negeri terus meroket dan memicu kemogokan industri,” jelas Aisha.
Pesan Strategis untuk Indonesia
Menutup narasinya, Aisha mengingatkan bahwa situasi di perairan Oman adalah pelajaran berharga bagi Indonesia sebagai negara kepulauan. Ia menekankan pentingnya pengamanan koridor maritim dan titik-titik krusial (chokepoints) seperti Selat Malaka agar tidak menjadi area rebutan pengaruh kekuatan global.
Blokade ekonomi ini bukan sekadar soal angka di neraca perdagangan, melainkan instrumen politik yang sangat menentukan siapa yang akan bertahan lebih lama di meja perundingan. Saat ini, dunia hanya bisa memantau siapa yang akan berkedip lebih dulu dalam adu nyali di mulut Selat Hormuz.
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